“Winter sun” gets used for three different holidays. One is warm enough to swim. One is a reliable 20 °C with a breeze. One is a sunny Atlantic town where the sea is still cool. Picking from a sunshine ranking treats them as the same place.
They are not. This is the December-to-February comparison, using typical conditions rather than a single lucky week.
The three coasts side by side
| Red Sea (Hurghada, Sharm) | Canary Islands, south coast | Agadir | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daytime high | about 22–25 °C | about 20–22 °C | about 20–22 °C |
| Night | around 15 °C | around 15–17 °C | cooler than the Red Sea |
| Sea | low 20s, a real swim | about 19–21 °C, a dip | Atlantic, often under 20 °C |
| Rain | rare | south coasts mostly dry; north coasts cloudier | uncommon |
| What the trip is | a beach | mild sun, walking and a swim if you like cooler water | a sunny coast, not a hot beach |
Luxor and Aswan belong in a different column. They are as sunny as Hurghada and often as warm at lunchtime, and much colder after dark. Go for the Nile, not for the sea.
Choose the Red Sea when the beach is the point
If the test is “can I swim without talking myself into it”, Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh win this trio. Rain almost never rearranges the week. The trade-off is the journey: it is the furthest of the three from most of Europe, and a short weekend spends a large share of its hours in airports.
It is the wrong choice if you wanted a mild walk and a long lunch. Mid-20s with strong sun is a beach day, and there is less to do when you have had enough of the beach than in a Canarian or Moroccan town.
Choose the Canaries when you want fewer surprises
The south of Tenerife, Gran Canaria and Lanzarote is the trip that least often goes wrong. You know roughly what 21 °C and a trade wind feel like, the resorts are built for it, and from much of western and northern Europe the flight is shorter than Egypt.
Two honest limits:
- It is not Egypt. People who expect “hot” in January are disappointed, then call the weather bad when it was simply mild.
- The north of each island is a different climate. Cloud can sit on the mountains all day while the south is clear. Stay on the coast you actually booked.
Madeira is a near neighbour in temperature, greener and a little more changeable, and better if the holiday is walking rather than sand.
Choose Agadir when you want Morocco without the desert nights
Agadir’s winter days match the Canaries more than they match Marrakesh. You get sun, a long corniche, and air that is warm enough for a T-shirt at lunch. You do not get a Red Sea swim. The Atlantic stays cool, and the wind can pick up.
Marrakesh, Essaouira and the desert are easy to combine with Agadir on a map and a bad idea to treat as the same weather. Inland nights in January are often close to freezing. Essaouira is windier and cooler than Agadir by day.
Further south, Dakhla is drier and a little more extreme: a wind-sports coast, not a softer version of Agadir.
What does not belong on this list
Cyprus, Malta, Crete, the Algarve and the Costa del Sol are worth a winter city break. Daytime highs in the mid-teens can feel wonderful against a northern European January. They lose a beach comparison with all three coasts above, and a wet week is part of the Mediterranean winter, not a freak.
Tunisia’s coast is closer to that Mediterranean pattern than to Hurghada. It can be a good mild week. It is not the safe beach bet.
A simple way to decide
- If you will be unhappy without a swim, fly to the Red Sea and give the trip enough days that the journey is not the whole holiday.
- If you want sun you can trust and you do not need heat, book the south of a Canary island.
- If you want that same mild band and would rather be in Morocco, book Agadir and do not judge it by Marrakesh’s nights.
- If 16 °C and a cathedral would do, do not pay for any of these. Southern Spain or a Mediterranean city is the shorter trip. See winter sun you can actually reach.
Averages do not pick your week. Once the dates are inside the forecast window, check them against home. A calm 23 °C in Hurghada is worth a long flight from a wet 4 °C. The same flight is a poor deal if you only have three days, or if home has a bright mild spell of its own.
Compare a winter beach from where you are. The beach filter asks for real warmth, so a 16 °C city does not win just because it is closer.